How accurate are political betting apps? Florida professors weigh in

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) - There’s an interesting phenomenon happening in the background of Florida politics. Trading apps like Kalshi and Polymarket feature a lot of political races. But how accurate are those odds?

It turns out that early on in a race, prediction markets are likely more accurate than polls, but that flips around this time of year.

“Six to 12 months before an election, prediction markets are more accurate than polls for predicting the outcome. Not as a snapshot of where the public is now, but for predicting the outcome.” said Adam Cayton, an associate professor at University of West Florida.

Prediction markets heavily favor Congressman Byron Donalds right now, with above a 90% chance to become the GOP nominee on some sites.

But Florida professors caution that doesn’t mean Donalds would receive 90% of the vote, just that most people believe he’ll win by at least one vote.

These prediction markets can be skewed because most people using them are young men, but often also people in the know.

“Because a lot of research has shown that prediction markets tend to be dominated by young males who really are interested in basically betting,” said Aubrey Jewett , Associate Professor, University of Central Florida.

Florida politics:

The experts say not to discount polls because, after all, bettors are looking at them too and often, looking at almost every poll out there.

“These people are betting (and) they are assuming these polls are fairly accurate for whatever that may mean one way or the other,” said Professor Ed Benton, USF Professor of Political Science and Public Administration.

The prediction markets can also have issues with candidates who never actually qualified or ran appearing on them. Plus, experts say polls are often still accurate.

Professors say the prediction apps can also swing wildly when there’s new information like a scandal or endorsement. On the other hand, experts say polls can sometimes be slow to react.

Experts say it’s best to take in all the information when trying to get a sense of what’s happening in politics.

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