‘Here’s the catch:’ Florida election difficult to predict as early voting opens

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV/Gray Florida Capital Bureau) - August 3rd marks the earliest of early voting in some 10 Florida counties, while the number of vote-by-mail ballots already returned has crept over half a million.

There are over 1.3 million vote-by-mail ballots that have not yet been returned, according to the Florida Department of State Division of Elections.

Experts say about a third or fourth of registered voters are likely to participate this August, if past trends hold true. But they cautioned it’s increasingly difficult to predict what will happen in Florida’s elections.

“Here’s the catch. What has happened in polling is that partisan polling done by parties or interest groups or a candidate themselves... have replaced the more nonpartisan polls done by reputable groups, longtime groups, university polling,” said Susan MacManus, professor emeritus of political science at the University of South Florida.

Professor Aubrey Jewett says this month’s election, slated for August 18, will give Floridians an indication of which way the Florida Democratic Party is leaning. That’s because State Rep Angie Nixon, generally considered more progressive, is facing off against Col. Alexander Vindman, seen as more moderate, for U.S. Senate.

The winner is almost certain to face incumbent Republican Senator Ashley Moody., who does face a few primary challengers.

“And so on the Democratic side, for instance, for U.S. Senate, Alex Vindman is probably considered the favorite, but Angela Nixon, she’s sort of going from the left, the progressive wing of the party. She doesn’t have as much money, but she’s an African-American progressive who may be able to spark some of the voters in the Democratic base,” Jewett said.

Flip over to the Republican side, and both professors still believe U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds is the favorite to take the GOP nomination for governor.

“Well, the rank orderings have been pretty close from the get-go in terms of Donalds being way ahead from the other three. And of course, the other three are hoping that last minute endorsements, for example, Paul Renner getting the Miami Herald endorsement,” MacManus said.

But, just how much of the vote Donalds receives could determine how much influence President Donald Trump retains in Florida, as Trump endorsed Donalds early on in the race.

“Because the conventional wisdom suggests Byron Donalds is going to win because he got Trump’s endorsement early and Trump’s endorsement in Florida (means a lot),” Jewett said. “Even though Trump’s poll numbers overall, his approval ratings are down somewhat. In the Republican base of people who are going to turn out for a primary, apparently he may still have a lot of sway. We’ll soon find out.”

Another statewide race to watch is that of Chief Financial Officer, in which incumbent Republican Blaise Ingoglia must fend off a minor primary challenge, and then face one of two Democrats in the general election.