FEMA may pay less for hurricane recovery, Florida Policy Institute analyst says

According to a new report from the Florida Policy Institute, some local governments would see most of their yearly budgets eaten up by paying for storm recovery
Published: Aug. 24, 2026 at 3:01 PM EDT

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV/Gray Florida Capital Bureau) - An under the radar discussion in the arguments for or against Amendment 3: Would local governments have the money to pay for hurricane cleanup, and reimburse you for costs FEMA doesn’t want to pay anymore.

According to a new report from the Florida Policy Institute, local governments like Bay, Sarasota and Taylor counties would see most, if not all, of their yearly budgets eaten up by paying for storm recovery if Amendment 3 passes.

“We’re looking at the state bill at least doubling for what the state’s going to have to pick up for these cost,” said FPI Visiting Fellow Ethan Frey. “We looked at the five biggest (storms) and under the recommendations released by the President’s FEMA Review Council, that’s a little over $3 billion in additional costs just for those five storms.”

The Florida Policy Institute advocates primarily for progressive policies statewide.

“Just because we passed amendment three and people stopped paying property taxes and we don’t have that disaster recovery fund is not going to stop a storm. A storm does not care whether we’re ready or not. A storm is coming and we need to be ready and we need to have these funds available,” said Jackson Peel, the communications director for Save our Services, an organization arguing against amendment three.

Amendment 3 supporters say local governments would still pay for emergency response, for example, with the remaining property tax dollars left over after the tax exemption expands. In the governor’s original proposal, which was modified by the legislature, Florida would’ve created a trust fund to pay out some local expenses at the state level.

According to Frey, proposed changes at FEMA would see the federal government give one lump sum payment to families impacted by a disaster like a hurricane. Frey said that payment would largely be tied to your home value, not the loss of a car, funeral expenses, or other miscellaneous costs previously covered by FEMA.

Recently, the FEMA Review Council released its final report, with its first recommendation being that states and local governments “lead” disaster response and the federal government take a “supporting role.” The council’s report remains a recommendation at this time.

“This is a change from the current reimbursement-based model based on site-by-site damage assessments. In the new model, STTs would administer project funds, in part to reduce FEMA administrative costs,” according to the Congressional Research Service.

Florida politics:

According to an analysis by the Urban Institute, states would’ve been required to pay $41 billion more for disasters across the United States from 2008-2024. Frey and Peel said much of those costs would be, in turn, passed down to local county commissions.

Still, supporters of Amendment 3 say Florida has an affordability crisis, with tax revenues and home values generally increasing, as do the price of gas and consumer goods.

They argue a $250,000 blanket property tax exemption would keep more money in Floridians’s pockets, and prevent out of control local spending. In Leon County, the state’s capital, the tax rate remained the same last year, but the county still brought in more tax revenue because home values went up. That’s lead even some Democratic local officials to support the measure.

By contrast, Leon County would lose upwards of $81 million each year of its budget once amendment three was fully phased in.

Ultimately it’s up to voters to decide if they want Amendment 3 to become part of the state constitution, or not. Earlier this month, the Florida attorney general was ordered to re-write the language that will appear on your ballot.

Amendment 3 will need to gain at least 60% of the votes to become law.